Poor forecast for Australian agriculture

Australian agriculture faces “disrupt-ion and decline” in the years ahead, according to a climate change report.

The expected hotter and drier conditions will hit rural communities hardest, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report found.

The paper forecasts that Australian crop yields will decline in parts of the south

and east of the country as the century goes on.

At the same time, some rural communities in those areas will face increased stress due to the forecast of hotter and drier conditions, it said.

The new IPCC report pushes the message that urgent action is needed to address the consequences of climate change.

It is predicted that the accumulated productivity losses across agriculture, manufacturing and service sectors in Australia could exceed $4 trillion by 2100.

“We’re already seeing a big drag on our productivity from climate change and that is likely to continue into the future,” said Prof Mark Howden, from the Australian National University.

As vice-chair of the working group that compiled the report, he said climate change would prove to be a challenge to Australia’s agricultural productivity.

Livestock would face increased heat stress and the window to grow crops would contract as the climate heated up, he said.

“We’re likely to see those negative impacts accelerate as climate change progresses and that means we have to be even smarter in how we farm in an even more variable environment,” he said.

Francis Chiew, lead author of the Australasia chapter of the IPCC report, said some areas would be particularly badly hit in the event of a 2C warmer world, pointing out in particular the Murray-Darling Basin.

“If you have 20 per cent less water you have challenges in how you’ll adapt, and how you might share water between competing demands which is already a very significant problem,” he said.

Dr Chiew, a senior hydrologist at Australia’s science agency CSIRO, added: “If you have less water you grow less food … although agriculture has also been adapting really well.”

Australia’s Agriculture Minister David Littleproud said the government had already helped farmers and regional communities to adapt to the changing climate.

“There is support, research and innovations for farmers and farming communities to make their land more productive, diversify their income and become more resilient to the impacts of climate change,” he said.

Measures already in place include a $5 billion Future Drought Fund to help farmers and communities.